Is it a conspiracy?

For each distribution, the site calculates 1 − exp(−p ∫ N(t)dt): the Poisson CDF for at least one intrinsic disclosure. The default leak rate is Grimes’s deliberately conservative lower estimate, p = 4.09 × 10⁻⁶ per person-year.

The Gompertz model uses the paper’s human-mortality constants α = 10⁻⁴ and β = 0.085. The constant model represents an ongoing cover-up. The exponential model requires a half-life and is included because it is one of the paper’s three population assumptions.

A high value does not prove a claim false, and a low value does not prove it true. A high value does however mean it's exceedingly unlikely that this claim is an actual conspiracy.

Read the paper · Read the correction · Read the 2021 COVID paper